VIDEO ANALYSIS: WHAT IS BEHIND THE OROMO ETHNIC'S REVOLT IN ETHIOPIA?
The Ethiopian administration is now confronted with unprecedented revolt
from the Oromo ethnic group, consisting 35% of the Ethiopia’s population, which
it disingenuously claims is inspired by terrorism;
The direct pretext is the Addis Ababa
Master Plan encroaching and displacing Oromo farmers, but this
masks a deeper
grievance which has been brewing for at least two eras under
this regime, and for over a century under successive highland Ethiopian rulers,
(Woldemariam, Y. 2015)
During the religious festival period, different Ethnics from the Ethiopian
community, the Oromia people included meet for enjoy and exchange spiritual activities
as component part of the festival; This time the Oromia have been used this tactic
to rise their concern as Oromo’s problem with the government on the station and
because of extension of misunderstanding between them and their régime at the position,
this time was took more than 52 people
died in a stampede after police shot guns into the air and fired tear gas and
rubber bullets into a large anti-government demonstration Sunday 2nd Oct. 2016,
(Sharman J. 2016). The protest began as an estimated 2 million people
joined a religious festival in Ethiopia’s Oromia region home to the Oromo
people, who for the last two years have staged anti-government protests.
Background
The late Ethiopian leadership headed by H.E. Meles Zenawi, Prime
Minster, achieved power in 1991 as “the first among equals” in a ruling
coalition. After the 1998-2000 “border war” with Eritrea, they moved to
consolidate the power by rewarding loyalists and weakening or disciplining their
rivals. They institutionalized one-party rule of the Tigray People’s Liberation
Front (TPLF) and their Tigrayan inner circle, with the participation of other
co-opted ethnic elites who were brought into the ruling alliance under the
Ethiopian People’s Revolutionary Democratic Front (EPRDF), (Woldemariam, Y.
2015).
The EPRDF consists of five groups: the Oromo Peoples’ Democratic
Organization (OPDO), the Amhara National Democratic Movement (ANDM), the South
Ethiopian Peoples’ Democratic Front (SEPDF), The Oromo Liberation Front (OLF)
and the Tigrayan Peoples’ Liberation Front (TPLF). The Oromo Liberation Front
(OLF) decided to
withdraw from the EPRDF coalition in 1992 and was pushed out
after unsuccessfully trying to assert its independence from the TPLF within the
coalition. The role of OPDO, ANDM and SEPDF is simply to rubber stamp TPLF’s
agenda. In North American parlance, one can describe the members of OPDO, ANDM
and SEPDF as the uncle Toms of Ethiopian society, (ibid 2015).
PMZ’s ferocious crackdown on the 2005 demonstrations complaining
the widely believed rigged election was a clear sign of his willpower to hang
on control, In the 2010 elections, the EPRDF won 499 out of 547 parliamentary
seats with all but two others going to EPRDF-allied parties and all but one of
1,904 council seats in regional elections. Despite the impression of
parliamentary rule, those elected were immaterial to the governance of nation,
since the TPLF and PM maintained near complete regulator over the country’s
politics, (Ojienda, T. 2013) If there was any doubt in 2005, in the 2010 and 2015 elections, it became
clear that this was a one-party rule with a retribution, ensuring the triumph
of repression, the squashing of dissenting voices and the fastening unhappy of
independent media. Elections in Ethiopia are shenanigans to show complete EPRDF
control rather than engagement in democracy.
Evolution Sequence
There was a rumour that some leaders
passing in august 2012
could touch off an internal power struggle expected to take place within the ranks of their loyalists in Ethiopia. But the succession of a new Leaders turned out to be an uneventful affair and at least outwardly peaceful. The numbers of Tigrayans in the cabinet decreased, but key posts remain in the hands of aging Tigrayan loyalists. The talk of “generational change” over the past few years was simply a charade.
could touch off an internal power struggle expected to take place within the ranks of their loyalists in Ethiopia. But the succession of a new Leaders turned out to be an uneventful affair and at least outwardly peaceful. The numbers of Tigrayans in the cabinet decreased, but key posts remain in the hands of aging Tigrayan loyalists. The talk of “generational change” over the past few years was simply a charade.
The New civilization gives an impression superficial of balance and covers
for the Tigrayan oligarchy, rather than marginalized the issues in the
periphery of Ethiopian society, and a born-again Christian where the dominant church
is Ethiopian Orthodox. Considering this assumption of considering These current
leaders that were never participated in the armed struggle that brought the
various factions of the EPRDF to power, Their status as outsiders were
perceived by many to be an asset that gave them wider legality, insulated them
from criticism and allowed them to present themselves as runner up protected
from the historical baggage of the Amhara and Tigrayans.
Yet, in these three years in power, the leaders announced few new
policies which was recommend that the top managers are simply a figurehead and
that real power is still within a core TPLF group shadowing them. In any case,
party leaders seem lost without the PM. They govern on autopilot, following the
vision and templates of the formers leadership left behind which people think
is ruling from the grave. Yet developments like the Oromo uprising expose the
limits of ruling from the grave.
Resistance to EPRDF Rule
While opposition and discontent have been growing in Ethiopia, the
security apparatus is ever vigilant against them. Rioting
Muslims were effectively contained. The TPLF marginalized both
the legal and the extra-legal opposition, leaving little option but to protest
as in the current Oromo uprising. The few co-opted Oromo elites within the
EPRDF have little credibility, and protesters scoff at statements coming from
Oromo leaders serving the regime.
Other ethnic groups deeply dissatisfied are the Ogadenis, Gambella and
Benishangul-Gumuz. The Ogaden national liberation Front (ONLF) in
Ogaden is waging an insurgency exacerbated by forcible relocations to allow oil
and gas exploration. Similar insurgency rages in Oromia led by the Oromo
Liberation Front (OLF). Oromia was incorporated into the Ethiopian
empire in the 1880s by emperor Menelik II during the time the European
scramble for Africa was underway.
Resentment to TPLF rule extends even among parts of Tigray, where a part
of the population feel left out by the TPLF elites interested only in making
money and investing it in the capital or abroad. The EPRDF has unsuccessfully
lobbied the U.S. government to label the ONLF and the OLF as terrorist organizations.
Nevertheless, the controversial use and abuse of the Anti-Terrorism
Law is applied with impunity. The government attributes the
ongoing Muslim and Oromo protest to infiltration from Saudi Arabia, Eritrea and
the opposition Ginbot 7 movement.
Despite a dishonest attempt to externalize the issue, Ethiopian Muslims,
who number anywhere from 40% to 50% of the population, and the Oromo have
historically been marginalized, and the protest is very much home-grown and
rooted in a long list of grievances.
The role of the Invisible hands in Ethiopia
Ethiopia is a key strategic ally for the War on
Terror, which insulates it from any US condemnation; Ethiopia receives
the largest aid in Africa an average $3.3 billion
per year; The government abuses aid money to the extent that even government-provided
seeds and fertilizer is denied to farmers who are not party
members, (Woldemariam, Y. 2015). Regarding the current uprising, the United
States has issued a statement
of concern. However, the regime itself is noticeably unconcerned
because it knows these statements by the U.S. are accompanied by little or no
action. Even the African Union, with it’s headquarter in Addis Ababa,
International aid subsidizes about 50 % of Ethiopia’s national budget.
United Kingdom funding of $4.9billion for
a brutal resettlement scheme was only withdrawn this year. Germany
continues to aid Ethiopia for “strategic” reasons despite
voicing concern about human rights violations. The regime has deepened
its economic relationship with China (which is tight-lipped on
human rights issues) by utilizing its comparative advantage: capitalizing on
the availability of plentiful cheap labour and Chinese subsidies for projects
encroaching in Oromia.
The Economy
The former leaders engineered Ethiopia’s success in securing aid from
the European Union and the U.S.; he was adept at manoeuvring and securing money
from Western financial institutions that even his detractors acknowledge. He
counted among his admirer’s big names such as Professor Jeffrey Sachs of
Harvard as well as Professor Joseph Stiglitz of Columbia University and a
recipient of the Nobel Prize in Economics. The country’s rulers have perfected
the culture of begging and dependency and are now appealing for a $1.4 billion to feed
the 10.2 million drought victims even though they engage in the
business of leasing fertile land to foreign investors who export everything
they grow. Drought does not have to lead to hunger and famine, if a government
plans for it. Poor governments can store grain when there is good harvest in
preparation for such emergencies.
Consistent with the notion of state-directed develop mentalism espoused
by the EPRDF, it aspired to oversee the development of roads, rail, electricity
and telecommunications, boasting double-digit growth although the IMF disputes
those figures and puts the
growth rate at 7.5 per cent . It did succeed in Addis Ababa
getting sub-Saharan
Africa’s first light-rail network. However, the government’s claim
that its socio-economic policies have helped the poor is disputed by critics,
who point out that the primary beneficiaries are the political elite and that
the gap between the elites and the poor is ever wider. The Oromo uprising is
partially resentment over displacement and over environmental
damage in the name of development. Corruption is
rampant in the country. Theft from state enterprises and
participation in the black market, including widespread graft is all too
common.
Federalism
Ethiopia under the EPRDF was officially declared a federal state. In
states with true federalism, regions enjoy political primacy, as it is they who
consciously decide to form the state, unlike centralized states where the
constituting units come into being in line with EPRDF administrative
requirements from the center. The strong center in Ethiopia never allowed for
the true spirit of federalism to emerge. The country could never rid itself of
the lingering grievance of the regions, of not getting their share,
commensurate with their resources. There is a whole list of such claims, such
as, misuse of river waters and cheaply leasing of
indigenous land to foreign capitalists, urbanization (as in
Addis Ababa’s Master Plan), and increasing Deforestation.
The TPLF military and the future
The Ethiopian military as an institution has acquired unprecedented
power. Under any conceivable scenario, the military will continue to be a key
and decisive player. Yet, it is not a truly national army; at the officer corps
level, it is heavily dominated by Tigreans. Historically, the rank and file
soldiers come mostly from the Oromo nation and have been the cannon fodder in
the country’s numerous wars under this said leadership and TPLF system. There
is deep grievance within the army resulting in high profile desertions from the
Air Force and other branches.
Control of key economic sectors by the military under the EPRDF have
made it difficult to limit its role to a strictly military one. The military’s
role has other consequences of spiraling ethnic conflicts which have reached a
boiling point in the current uprising. EPRDF rule has engendered profound
hatred and resentments among different groups with Ethiopian society and among
the former ruling classes of the Amhara ethnic group.
Conclusion and recommendations
The Government should look on Community’s interest by considering
majority more than its only interest, because if it’s continue on that way,
will encourage and give the energy to the said invisible hand to use them and
disordered the community;
The Ogadenis have a longstanding group grievance that is part and parcel
of their indomitable desire for self-determination, which has never been
addressed according to the citizens in the country where the current uprising
judgement is a culmination of systematic injustice perpetrated against the
Oromo ethnic;
The government should emphasise
on the political space for cross-ethnic alliances that is being challenged along
ethnic and religious lines, potentially setting the stage for the balkanization
of the country.
Country should take into consideration “Democratic federalism system”
that may contribute more to fragmentation and dismemberment than
nation-building.
Author Prof. Dr. Rugema D. Muyombano
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