VIDEO ANALYSIS: USA'S 2016 PRESIDENTIAL ELECTIONS CAMPAIGN PROCESS by Irivuzimana Aime Muyombano Ph.D


USA’S PRESIDENTIAL ELECTIONS CAMPAIGN PROCESS 2016

   0. Abstract
The campaign field of 2016 Presidential Candidates continues to twist and turn as its get closer to Election Day.  Several candidates have already “Suspended their campaigns” meaning that they’ve dropped out of the race while others continue to win Presidential polls and endorsements from around the country.
 The Presidential Candidates for 2016 understand the importance of this year’s election that will be a new President in office.  Both Democratic and Republican candidates are fighting hard to earn votes in key states to win the election. Either Hillary Clinton, a former secretary of state, first lady and senator, whom has made history as the first woman from a major political party nominated for the candidacy of US president or Donald John Trump one of America’s best-known business and television personalities whose business interests include real estate, gambling, and
The second Presidential Debate as it is awaited; Clinton vs. Trump matchup in a series of highly anticipated debates will really heat up during the Second Debate. During the first, they have been simply attacking one other on policy issues, personal disputes and more but during the Second Debate they have a chance to re-strategize in an effort to win over more voters.  Just like in boxing, round two is always better than round one.
1.    Introduction
The United States presidential election of 2016, scheduled for Tuesday, November 8, 2016, will be the 58th quadrennial U.S. presidential election.
Voters will select presidential electors, who in turn will vote for a new president and vice president through the Electoral College. The term limit established in the Twenty-second Amendment to the United States Constitution prevents the incumbent president, Barack Obama of the Democratic Party, from being elected to a third term. The 2016 election will likely determine the 45th President and 48th Vice President of the United States. 

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    0.    Development

2.1.        2016 presidential election
The series of presidential primary elections and caucuses took place between February 1 and June 14, 2016, staggered among the 50 states, the District of Columbia and U.S. territories (Collinson, S.  Kopan, T. 2016). This nominating process is also an indirect election, where voters cast ballots for a slate of delegates to a political party's nominating convention, who in turn elect their party's presidential nominee, (Sabato, Larry J. 2015).. The Republican National Convention took place from July 18–21, 2016, in Cleveland, Ohio, while the Democratic National Convention took place from July 25–28, 2016, in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, (ibid 2015).
Businessman and reality television personality Donald Trump became the Republican Party's presidential nominee on July 19, 2016, after defeating Texas Senator Ted Cruz, Ohio Governor John Kasich, Florida Senator Marco Rubio and several other candidates in the Republican primary elections. Former Secretary of State and New York Senator Hillary Clinton became the Democratic Party's presidential nominee on July 26, 2016, after defeating Vermont Senator Bernie Sanders. Clinton is the first female presidential candidate nominated by a major political party. It is also the first election since 1944 in which both major party candidates were from the same home state. In both cases, the two candidates were from New York, (Collinson, S.  Kopan, T. 2016).
Various third party and independent presidential candidates are also running in the election. Two are on the ballot in enough states to mathematically win the Electoral College and have been featured in major national polls: the Libertarian Party nominee, former Governor of New Mexico Gary Johnson and the Green Party nominee Jill Stein Johnson and Stein also ran as their parties' presidential nominees in the 2012 election.
Article Two of the United States Constitution provides that the President and Vice President of the United States must be natural-born citizens of the United States at least 35 years old, and a resident of the United States for a period of at least 14 years. Candidates for the presidency typically seek the nomination of one of the political parties of the United States, in which case each party devises a method (such as a primary election) to choose the candidate the party deems best suited to run for the position (USA Constitution, 1789). The primary elections are usually indirect elections where voters cast ballots for a slate of party delegates pledged to a particular candidate. The party's delegates then officially nominate a candidate to run on the party's behalf. The general election in November is also an indirect election, where voters cast ballots for a slate of members of the Electoral College; these electors in turn directly elect the President and Vice President, (ibid 1789).
Obama, a Democrat and former U.S. Senator from Illinois, is ineligible to seek re-election to a third term due to restrictions of the Twenty-second Amendment; in accordance with Section I of the Twentieth Amendment, his term expires at 12:00 noon EST on January 20, 2017.
Since the beginning of this year 2016, The USA’s field campaign of 2016 Presidential Candidates continues its rotation and shot out as it gets closer to Election Day.  Several candidates have already “Suspended their campaigns” meaning that they’ve dropped out of the race while others continue to win Presidential polls and endorsements from around the country.
But the truth is that most American voters don’t know all that much about the 2016 Presidential Candidates.  Despite numerous debates, town hall meetings, campaign rallies and awkward morning show appearances, the current candidates for President aren’t doing a great job getting their message to the people.  Unfortunately, the majority of Registered Voters feel disconnected from the political class in the United States, making it difficult to believe the political promises made leading up to Election Day.
The Presidential Candidates for 2016 offer a wide range of political backgrounds.  From lifelong politicians to career businessmen, voters have a wide selection of potential Presidents to choose from in 2016.
2.1.1.   2016 Republican Presidential Candidates
The Republican Presidential Candidates in 2016 will be aiming to regain control of the White House after 8 years of a Democrat in the Oval Office.  Several potential candidates have been actively campaigned for the Republican nomination which will come during the National Convention this summer in Cleveland, OH.  We’ve already seen several big names drop out of the GOP race during the 2016 campaign, while Donald Trump continues to take top position in Presidential Polls.
2.1.2.   2016 Democratic Presidential Candidates
There have only ever really been two main Democratic Presidential Candidates in 2016.  It’s important for the American Voters to research where the candidates stand on political topics that affect them personally.  Some of the hot topics in the 2016 campaign are Health Care, Taxes, Minimum Wage and Income Disparity where the democratic presidential candidates differ on some core principals.
The Democratic Presidential Candidates in 2016 are fighting to maintain control of the White House after Barack Obama’s two consecutive terms as Commander in Chief.  They face a desperate Republican Party nominee, who will be under great pressure from the billionaires and Wall Street to win in 2016.
In 2016, the Democratic Presidential Candidates will be looking to appeal to voters who are on the fence about who they should vote for, while maintaining a consistent message for their faithful followers.  This year’s election could be one of the closest in American history, and the Democrats will need to bring out new voters in order to win on November 8th.
2.1.3.   Third Party Political Groups on Presidential Candidates 2016
There are many other candidates running for President in 2016 besides Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump.  Most are not even registering on national polls, and have very little awareness for their political platform.  Some of the more established Third Political Parties have nominated candidates in 2016 that may be able to get a significant percentage of the popular vote.
The two most prominent Third Party Candidates are Gary Johnson and Jill Stein.  Johnson represents the Libertarian movement, while Stein pushes the Green Party’s agenda on a national scale leading up to Election Day.  Take the time to learn more about Third Party Candidates for President in 2016 by reading more about the parties now.
The 2016 Green Party Presidential Candidate is Dr. Jill Stein.  Officially founded in 2001, the Green Party has never had a candidate win a Presidential Election in the United States, but they have more supporters in 2016 than any previous year.  Thanks to unfavourable ratings of Trump and Clinton, voters have been seeking more information on all candidates running for President in 2016.  This has drive more awareness to the Green Party candidate than ever before.
The Green Party represents government support for environmentalism, social justice, nonviolence and anti-racism.  Thanks to the message of Bernie Sanders many Americans are now looking for platforms that support many of these important issues – and with Clinton winning the nomination, many democrats are looking for other candidates to support in 2016.
Americans looking for Third Parties to Vote for President in 2016 will have both the Green Party and Libertarian Gary Johnson to choose from.  Many undecided voters will become more aware of the Green Party in 2016 than ever before thanks to the dislike of Trump and Clinton.
a.    Green Party Politics in the United States
Looking at the history of Green Party Politics in the United States will reveal many different formations of the party with growing support over time.  The 2016 Green Party Presidential Candidate is not looking at the political past of the party though – as Jill Stein is only leading the group forward as we near the 2016 Presidential Election.  Donations for the Green Party increased significantly after Sanders dropped out of the race against Clinton.
The Grassroots Democracy approach that the Green Party takes to political issues has helped position their 2016 campaign perfectly given the current dislike of the two-party system.  The most recent political poll results show promise for Jill Stein and the Green Party to command as much as 10% in the Presidential Election.
b.    Libertarianism Politics in the United States
Libertarianism is the third largest political party in the United States, with over 400,000 registered voters in the 2016 Election.  National political debates require that candidates be polling at 15% or higher nationally in order to qualify to be on stage, and Gary Johnson may be able to reach that level.  Recent Presidential poll results had Gary Johnson receiving as much as 12% of the popular vote, meaning the is within striking distance of being able to join the national debates against the Democrats and Republicans.
The chances of Libertarians winning the 2016 Presidential Election are very low, but he party continues to campaign against the primary political parties.  Many believe if they are able to raise the platform to 15% in time for the first Presidential Debate that momentum will carry them to the best election result the party has ever had.
2.2.        2008 presidential election
In the 2008 election, Obama was elected president, defeating the Republican nominee, Senator John McCain of Arizona, with 53% of the popular vote and 68% of the electoral vote, succeeding two-term Republican President George W. Bush, the former Governor of Texas. Since the end of 2009, Obama's first year in office, polling companies such as Gallup have found Obama's approval ratings to be between 40–50%. Analysts such as Larry Sabato have noted that Obama's approval ratings could impact the 2016 campaign, having either a positive or negative effect on Clinton's campaign.

2.2.1.   2010 midterm elections
In the 2010 midterm elections, the Democratic Party suffered significant losses in Congress; the Republicans gained 63 seats in the House of Representatives taking back control of the chamber in the process and six seats in the Senate, though short of achieving a majority. As a result of the Republicans' recapture of the House after losing it to the Democrats in the 2006 midterm elections, John Boehner became the 53rd Speaker of the House of Representatives, making Obama the first President in 16 years to lose the House of Representatives in the first half of his first term in an election that was characterized by the economy's slow recovery, and the rise of the Tea Party movement.
2.3.        2012 presidential election
In the 2012 presidential election, Obama defeated former Governor of Massachusetts Mitt Romney with 51% of the popular vote and 62% of the electoral vote. Meanwhile, despite minor losses, Republicans retained their majority of seats in the House of Representatives while Democrats increased their majority in the Senate.
Speculation about the 2016 campaign began almost immediately following the 2012 campaign, with New York magazine declaring the race had begun in an article published on November 8, two days after the 2012 election. On the same day, Politico released an article predicting the 2016 general election may be between Clinton and former Governor of Florida Jeb Bush, while a New York Times article named Governor of New Jersey Chris Christie and New Jersey Senator Cory Booker as potential candidates.
2.3.1.   2014 midterm elections
In the 2014 midterm elections, voter turnout was the lowest since 1942: 36% of eligible voters voted. The Republicans retained control of the House of Representatives, increasing their majority to its largest since March 4, 1929, and gained a majority in the Senate.
2.4.        Conclusion and Recommendations
The second Presidential Debate will be better than the first one.  The Clinton vs. Trump matchup in a series of highly anticipated debates will really heat up during the Second Debate. During the first, they were simply feeling out each other on policy issues, personal disputes and more during the Second Debate they will be able to re-strategize in an effort to win over more voters.  Just like in boxing, round two is always better than round one.
The moderators for the Second Presidential debate will have a schedule of topics to cover with the candidates, but it’s unlikely that the candidates will stay on topic.  As showcased in earlier debates, both candidates tend to focus on only the topics they feel prepared for and personal attacks against the other’s character which is wrong because Americans do want to  hear someone who is talking on the mechanism that he/she will use to continue improve Socio-economic development of this strong and powerful society.   
Don’t be surprised if I give an assumption saying that most Americans (voters) have already decided who they are going to vote for, only it’s up to these two candidate to demonstrate on their partisans that they are the right person by highlighting their individual strengths and qualifications to become the next President of the United States.
Both Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton, need further effort on their campaigns by  presenting their alarm strategies on the International politics and economy  vis a vis the rest of the world in terms of fighting against Terrorism, environment,  international trade, investment and free movement that will continue to move forward the Federal (the country)
The real concern, then, lies not only in the selective presentation of economic facts by news media. A seemingly more intractable issue is that when they learn “inconvenient facts,” Americans seem to be more than willing to revise their underlying understanding of the world to accommodate the new information in line with the partisan narrative.
Rigid in party loyalty, yet limber in mind, Republicans and Democrats can deftly vault past disconfirming information to land in vastly different economic realities. In 2016 and beyond, then, we shouldn’t be surprised if economic accountability lies just out of reach.
2.5.        References
Collinson, S.  Kopan, T. (2016). "It's official: Trump is Republican nominee". CNN. Retrieved July 19, 2016.
Sabato, Larry J. ( 2015). "Clinton's Real Opponent: Barack Obama". Politico. Retrieved May 11, 2015.
Cooper, A. (2015). "Jim Gilmore formally joins GOP presidential race". USA Today. Retrieved July 30, 2015.
USA C. (1789), United States Constitution of the United States of America" (PDF).
 United States Senate (1992). "Amendments to the Constitution of the United States of America" (PDF).